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U.S. Paging Forecast

by Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette, 1999

  1998A 1999E 2000E 2001E 2002E 2003E 2004E
Total U.S. Paging Market Subscribers * (M) 51.0 52.5 53.5 55.0 57.0 59.5 62.5
% Change Year to Year 4.1% 2.9% 1.9% 2.8% 3.6% 4.4% 5.0%
Net Additions 2.0 1.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0
United States Population 268.7 270.5 272.4 274.3 276.3 278.2 280.2
Market Penetration 19.0% 19.4% 19.6% 20.0% 20.6% 21.4% 22.3%
   
One-Way Paging Subscribers (M) 50.5 51.5 51.5 50.0 47.0 42.5 36.5
% Change Year to Year 3.5% 2.0% 0.0% -2.9% -6.0% -9.6% -14.1%
% of Total Paging Industry 99.0% 98.1% 96.3% 90.9% 82.5% 71.4% 58.4%
Net Additions (M) 1.7 1.0 0.0 -1.5 -3.0 -4.5 -6.0
Incremental Share of Net Additions 85.1% 67.4% 0.0% -100.0% -150.0% -180.0% -200.0%
   
Two-Way Paging Subscribers (M) 0.5 1.0 2.0 5.0 10.0 17.0 26.0
% Change Year to Year 139.7% 95.5% 100.0% 150.0% 100.0% 70.0% 52.9%
% of Total Paging Industry 1.0% 1.9% 3.7% 9.1% 17.5% 28.6% 41.6%
Net Additions (M) 0.3 0.5 1.0 3.0 5.0 7.0 9.0
Incremental Share of Net Additions 14.9% 32.6% 100.0% 200.0% 250.0% 280.0% 300.0%
 

* Historical subscribers are based on Economic and Management Consultants International, Inc. (EMCI) report.
A = Actual
E = Estimate
M = Millions
Source: PCIA Wireless Market Portfolio, 1999 Edition.

Graph showing subscriber growth

END OF SECTION
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